Is Saudi Arabia Running Low on Oil?
Admitting that the world's oil supply is rapidly being depleted seems to be a big 'no-no' for leading politicians and industry executives.
However, there are a growing number of observers who feel that this indeed might be the case. Those who feel this way point to the situation in Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil producer for the past three decades. For quite some time, industry watchers have postulated that Ghawar, the biggest oil field in the world, has reached its plateau of production.
If you don't know anything about Ghawar, it is by far the largest conventional oil field in the world, measuring an estimated 175 miles by 20 miles. Currently, the huge field is said to produce between 4.5 and 5 million barrels of oil per day by outside observers, in excess of six percent of worldwide production. The officially stated maximum sustained crude production capacity is 8.5 million barrels per day, though actual daily output is a closely-guarded state secret. Thus far, approximately 60 billion barrels have been pumped out of Ghawar since production began back in 1951.
Ghawar's total proven reserves, or recoverable oil still left in the ground, have been pegged at just over 70 billion barrels by Saudi Aramco, which is the largest nationalized oil company in the world. The word 'recoverable' is of special importance, as the gross amount of oil in the ground is much less important than the amount that can easily be removed at a given level of extractive technology. While modern techniques can certainly boost the amount of oil that can be extracted per oil field, the question of how expensive the operation turns out to be remains extremely pertinent. Once oil extraction becomes too difficult, and therefore expensive, it becomes economically infeasible to attempt to remove the remaining supply.
Saudi Arabia is watched very closely because of its importance in the global oil markets. It has long been acknowledged as the world's largest producer of oil, and has acted as a 'swing producer,' increasing and reducing oil extraction rates to balance to the worldwide market in concert with the other OPEC members.
Some worrying signs clearly indicate that the largest oil field in the world might be in permanent decline. Back in April 2006, a Saudi Aramco spokesman admitted that its older fields are now declining at a rate of 8 percent per year. This, of course, implies that Ghawar may have 'peaked.' The spokesman also said that actions were being taken to offset the decline, but that the only valid solution to declining oil supplies is to locate new fields, and it is beyond debate that discoveries have not kept pace with burgeoning worldwide demand.
If Ghawar is indeed in decline, it likely means that the rest of the world is as well. Of the 'super-giant' oil fields, four are officially in decline: China's Daquing, Mexico's Cantarell; Russia's Samotlor; and Kuwait's Burgan. Though Ghawar has not officially been so declared, one can infer as much, from the available facts.
Matthew Paolini is a consultant with Citybook.com for the Atlanta, GA business Yellow Pages division.
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